Bitcoin could either snap back or chop ahead of the Fed decision
(Artur Widak/Getty Images)
Prediction markets are evenly split: traders see roughly equal chances of bitcoin dipping below $80,000 or climbing above $100,000 this year.
Bitcoin staged a weekend rebound, briefly surpassing $92,000, yet it remains down about 28% from its October 6 all-time high and has wiped out all gains for the year. Analysts anticipate further volatility as the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting approaches. On Monday, bitcoin slipped again to just under the $90,000 mark.
In the meantime, bitcoin ETFs faced roughly $87.7 million in outflows last week, according to SoSoValue.
Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, notes that while large holders are accumulating, the market this week is highly sensitive to political and macro developments. He calls the Fed decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s ensuing remarks the clear market pivots to watch.
“Short-term retail exuberance increases the odds of a snapback or choppy action before the Fed. A decisive move through the $95K–$106K range will determine whether this reaccumulation turns into a durable uptrend or simply another relief bounce,” Misir explained.
Other headwinds this week include persistent ETF outflows and softer macro data, he added.
Pricing derived from market event contracts suggests traders assign about a 36% probability that bitcoin ends the year below $80,000, while they also see a roughly 36% chance that it will again surpass $100,000 this year.
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Bernstein analysts offer a more optimistic view, arguing that bitcoin is in an elongated bull phase supported by steady institutional buying that counters any retail sell-off. Despite about a 30% correction, ETF outflows have been under 5%.
The firm has lifted its 2026 price target to $150,000, with a potential peak near $200,000 in 2027, and maintains a longer-term note suggesting a 2033 price target around $1,000,000.
TD Cowen researchers present a base case of bitcoin reaching about $141,277 by December 25, with an upside around $160,000 and a downside near $60,000, according to a December 8 report.
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