Champions League Projections: Arsenal's Grip Strengthens, Bayern's Title Odds Rise
With the 2025-26 Champions League league phase halfway complete, the competition remains fiercely competitive, even as some teams begin to pull away from the pack. Arsenal continues to make strides towards becoming the new 'perfect team' of the Champions League, maintaining their lead in points and goals conceded. Bayern Munich, meanwhile, has emerged as the primary contender to Arsenal's dominance, securing a crucial victory over Paris Saint-Germain. The situation on Merseyside is stabilizing slightly, as Liverpool's recent triumph over Real Madrid at Anfield for the second consecutive year has brought them back into the mix.
The competition has seen its fair share of surprises and commendable performances, prompting adjustments in The Athletic's projections, fueled by Opta data. These projections will guide us through the tournament, providing insights into each club's chances of advancing to the knockout stages, securing a top-eight finish for direct qualification to the Round of 16, entering the knockout stage playoffs (9th to 24th), and ultimately, lifting the iconic trophy in Budapest on May 30th.
Here's a breakdown of the current projections after this week's matches:
Match of the Week: Barcelona vs. Club Brugge
Barcelona's high-pressing strategy was once again exposed by Club Brugge, resulting in a high-scoring draw that left both teams feeling disappointed. The game was a whirlwind, with three goals in the opening 17 minutes, two more in the 60th minute, and a 77th-minute own goal by Barcelona to secure a point. Between these moments, Barcelona hit the woodwork three times, while Brugge had a penalty disallowed and a goal ruled out for a foul on Wojciech Szczesny. This result significantly altered Barcelona's knockout qualification prospects, reducing their chances of a top-eight finish from 56% to 45% and increasing their chances of a knockout playoff berth from 44% to 55%. Brugge's league-phase elimination odds also shifted from 33% to 28%, despite upcoming challenges against Sporting CP and the formidable Arsenal.
Contenders' Performance
Arsenal
Arsenal remains the favorite, with their projected chance of winning the Champions League title rising to 24% after Matchday 4. Their 3-0 victory over Slavia Prague was impressive, and the losses of Madrid and PSG further bolstered their hopes. Arsenal now has a 98% chance of finishing in the top eight, solidifying their position as a top contender.
Bayern Munich
Bayern's 2-1 win over PSG elevated their title odds to 14% (up from 9% before Matchday 4). They have a 96% chance of directly qualifying for the Round of 16, showcasing their consistency and strength.
Inter Milan
Inter held off Kairat with a 2-1 win at home, maintaining their perfect record with four wins out of four. Despite a slight dip in their top-eight odds from 74% to 72%, Inter remains a formidable force, especially with upcoming matches against Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, and Arsenal.
Liverpool
Liverpool's 1-0 victory over Real Madrid was among the most convincing in the Champions League this season. Their performance was superior in every aspect, and it wasn't for Thibaut Courtois' heroics that the result could have been more lopsided. This win boosted their top-eight chances from 64% to 78%, while increasing Madrid's chances of finishing outside the top eight from 29% to 40%.
Manchester City
Manchester City's 4-1 win over Borussia Dortmund showcased their clinical finishing, even without Erling Haaland's goals. Phil Foden's brace and Rayan Cherki's stoppage-time strike offer encouragement. City's title odds rose from 12% to 13%, and their top-eight chances increased from 76% to 85%.
Big Movers
Qarabag
Qarabag made waves with their biggest scalp of the league phase, holding Chelsea to a 2-2 draw at home while outperforming them in expected goals (1.8 vs 1.3). Qarabag's projected points rose from six to 11, propelling them from 35th to 18th place. They now have an 81% chance of making the knockout playoffs, a remarkable achievement for a club founded in 2014.
Galatasaray
Galatasaray, fueled by Victor Osimhen's hat-trick, defeated Ajax 3-0. Their league-phase elimination odds are now less than 1%, and their top-eight odds have risen from 11% to 21%. Galatasaray might be reclaiming its status as a perennial Champions League dark horse.
Ajax, Benfica, and Athletic Club
Ajax, after sacking head coach John Heitinga, now has a 96% chance of league-phase elimination, with Kairat just above them. Benfica's odds are at 83%, a significant improvement from 21% at the tournament's start. Athletic Club's odds are at 73%.
Pafos
Pafos, who shocked Villarreal 1-0 at home, rose from 31st to 25th in the projections. They now have a 56% chance of making the knockout playoffs, an incredible feat for a club founded in 2014.
Leverkusen
Leverkusen's win over Benfica was crucial for their morale and odds, rising from 43% to 72% for finishing between 9th and 24th.
Marseille
Marseille's 1-0 home defeat to Atalanta dropped them from 21st to 28th in the projections. Their league-phase elimination odds are at 65%, and their knockout playoff chances have decreased from 60% to 35%.
The Chasing Pack
Chelsea
Chelsea's draw with Club Brugge reduced their top-eight odds from 51% to 30%, leaving them in a challenging position.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid's 3-1 win over Union Saint-Gilloise reduced their league-phase elimination odds to 4%. They aim to build momentum in their final four matches, similar to last season.
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham's 4-0 win over Copenhagen boosted their top-eight hopes to 28%, signaling a return to form. They face PSG, Slavia Prague, Dortmund, and Eintracht Frankfurt in their next matches.
Napoli
Napoli's 0-0 draw with Frankfurt didn't significantly impact their playoff chances, which remain at 76%. Their league-phase elimination odds have increased from 19% to 22%.
Borussia Dortmund
Despite losing to Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund still has a 73% chance of making the knockout playoffs and a 26% chance of finishing in the top eight. Their next matches against Villarreal and Bodo/Glimt offer crucial points.
