The Sleeping Giant Awakens: Unveiling the Mystery of Italy's Campi Flegrei Supervolcano
In the heart of Italy, a legendary volcano, Campi Flegrei, once depicted as the gateway to the underworld in ancient mythology, is stirring once more. This seismic giant, nestled near Naples, has a history of catastrophic eruptions that have shaped the very fabric of Europe. But here's where it gets controversial: could this ancient beast be preparing to roar again?
Campi Flegrei's prehistoric eruptions were so powerful they plunged Europe into an artificial winter, blanketing the continent in thick volcanic ash. Now, this powerful volcano is showing signs of life, with earthquakes shaking the ground in a way unseen for centuries, according to Giovanni Macedonio, director of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Naples.
"Two of the most recent earthquakes are the strongest we've ever witnessed," Macedonio warns. These tremors have forced evacuations, leaving families displaced and unable to return to their homes due to extensive damage.
For a safe evacuation during an eruption, over half a million people would need to be swiftly relocated from the "red zone" surrounding Campi Flegrei's eight-mile-wide crater. In this perilous zone, Macedonio emphasizes, there are no effective countermeasures to protect against the deadly pyroclastic flow of volcanic particles and ash, which can reach temperatures of 1,472 degrees Fahrenheit and move at speeds of 30 to 60 miles per hour.
Campi Flegrei is considered a "national threat" due to its explosive eruption style, which scientists believe could create an eruptive column, a towering cloud of dust and ash, rising up to 18 miles into the sky. When this column eventually collapses, its weight can even cause the roofs of homes to cave in.
At the observatory in Naples, a large red phone, tested twice daily, directly connects to the civil protection headquarters in Rome. This line is a constant reminder of the potential devastation that Campi Flegrei poses.
While Vesuvius, the famous volcano that froze Pompeii in time, rises to the east of Naples, it is the less visible Campi Flegrei, or Phlegrean Fields, that holds the potential for true devastation. Hundreds of thousands of people now reside directly on top of this volcano, within the eight-mile-wide crater left by its past eruptions.
"We all know we live in a completely seismic area," says Maddalena Desario, a resident of Naples whose neighborhood sits on the rim of the Campi Flegrei caldera.
In the ancient city of Pozzuoli, located within the caldera, tourists navigate winding alleyways, unaware of the peril that lies beneath. During the largest volcanic eruption some 39,000 years ago, Campi Flegrei spewed out 72 cubic miles of molten rock, according to Macedonio. Global temperatures plummeted, and Europe, as well as parts of Russia, were covered in volcanic ash. Some scientists even suggest that this eruption may have contributed to the final disappearance of the Neanderthals.
While experts believe a modern-day eruption would not reach the scale of ancient times, it could still wreak havoc on millions of lives and disrupt air travel across Europe and potentially the globe. Thus, Macedonio and his team vigilantly monitor every grumble and tremor.
At the Naples observatory, screens display the seismic activity of all regional volcanoes. On the day NPR visited, a loud alarm signaled the detection of an earthquake, prompting the scientists to swiftly assess the tremor's location and power and relay the information to Italian public safety authorities.
The Campi Flegrei was the source of this earthquake, and such events are not uncommon. Last year, scientists logged an astonishing 2,500 earthquakes caused by this volcano in a single month. Now, the tremors are intensifying, with June witnessing an unprecedented 4.6-magnitude earthquake, powerful enough to crack walls and send people fleeing.
These earthquakes are accompanied by bradyseism, a phenomenon where the ground swells, slowly rising beneath people's feet. At the old port in Pozzuoli, boats now rest in long grass, stranded on new land that has risen from the sea. Ancient Roman columns bear fossils of mollusks halfway up, a testament to their underwater past.
It's as if the giant volcano is breathing, with the ground rising and falling over decades with each breath. Before the last major eruption some 15,000 years ago, scientists say the ground rose approximately 85 feet. Now, it's rising again, up by 4.6 feet since 2005, and the rate of swelling is accelerating.
"We quickly learn that we have no control; nature does," says Warner Marzocchi, a professor of geophysics and natural risk at the University of Naples, Federico II. "These volcanic systems are accustomed to phases of unrest like the one we observe. The greatest scientific challenge is understanding what drives this unrest.
To tackle this challenge, Marzocchi and his team, along with Stanford University and the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, are employing artificial intelligence to create what experts believe is the most accurate picture yet. The model identifies thousands of earthquakes previously undetectable with existing technology, expanding the total seismicity recorded in the Campi Flegrei from about 12,000 to over 54,000 earthquakes in the last three years.
These developments aid scientists in making more informed predictions about future quake magnitudes and understanding why Campi Flegrei has shown increasing activity since 2005. Marzocchi suggests that the data indicate the tremors are likely caused by gases pushing superheated water through the earth rather than rising magma. While this may mean an eruption is not imminent, scientists cannot be certain.
Marzocchi emphasizes that the risk of an eruption is still "not zero," and vigilance is paramount.
In Pozzuoli, visitors explore historical buildings open for a contemporary art exhibition. Local artist Pina Testa, whose studio overlooks a cobbled street, finds inspiration in the volcano, with her paintings depicting volcanic eruptions in a vibrant array of colors.
"Fire and the movement of the earth speak to the soul, and this comes out in my paintings," Testa explains. She laughs, "Sometimes when the earth shakes, I feel it right under my studio," which, so far, remains undamaged.
Testa admits to a peculiar affection for this deadly companion. She recalls childhood gatherings with neighbors during evacuations, sometimes in the middle of the night, turning into social events with pizza and connection.
In the 1970s and 1980s, tens of thousands of residents were forcibly evacuated from the Rione Terra, the historic district of Pozzuoli, due to the sharp upswell in the ground from bradyseism, which authorities feared could signal an imminent eruption. Police and military forced people from their homes, relocating them to new apartments, and permanently seizing this oldest quarter of the city.
Today, tourists wander the empty streets of this quaint hilltop district, whose beautiful and historic buildings stand mostly uninhabited. Yet, across Pozzuoli and the Campi Flegrei region, entire communities remain, having lived in harmony with the volcano and its seismicity, according to Testa. The real residents of Pozzuoli may get scared, but they are never terrified, and they do not leave.
And this is the part most people miss: the resilience and acceptance of those who call this volcanic region home.
