The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is a grim reality that shows no signs of abating anytime soon. A leading military think tank has warned that Russia's ability to sustain its invasion could persist well into 2026, despite mounting economic and manpower pressures. This is a chilling prospect, especially considering Russia's growing missile and drone threat to Europe.
Bastian Giegerich, the director general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that Russia's war machine is far from depleted. In fact, the Kremlin's defense spending in 2025 amounted to a staggering $186 billion, an increase of 3% in real terms, and equivalent to 7.3% of Russia's GDP. This level of spending is more than double that of the US and almost three times that of the UK.
But here's where it gets controversial... Fenella McGerty, a defense finance expert, points out that while Russia's economy is slowing, it has been on a sharp growth trajectory for several years. Military spending has doubled in real terms since 2021, enabling Russia to ramp up its military equipment and recruitment efforts. This means that Russia can continue its relentless ground and air attacks on Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
Four years ago, Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite Ukraine's valiant resistance, the Kremlin has successfully reoriented its economy to support the war effort, sustaining high-intensity combat with over 1.2 million casualties.
And this is the part most people miss... Russia is not only fighting a war on the battlefield but also waging a war of attrition against Ukraine's critical infrastructure and population centers. Giegerich highlights that Russia is using a mix of cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as one-way attack drones, to intensify its attacks on Ukraine.
Nigel Gould Davies, a Russia expert, notes that Russia's recruitment efforts are falling short of its battlefield losses. Moscow could reduce its casualty rate by slowing down its offensives, but this would eventually lead to a 'moment of truth' for the Kremlin, potentially triggering a second mobilization and social unrest on a scale similar to the September 2022 enlistment.
The quality of Russia's recruits is also a concern. Gould Davies estimates that Russia recruits 30,000 to 35,000 people monthly, but the forces' quality is dropping as recruiters turn to alcoholics, drug addicts, and the sick.
The war has also become a testing ground for Russia to develop new battle tactics, missiles, and attack drones. The think tank highlights the Shahed-136, a modernized drone capable of striking targets across Europe with a range of 2,000km. This underscores the need for NATO to invest in missile defense and anti-drone systems, as demonstrated by the incident last September when 21 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, causing airports to close and forcing people to shelter indoors.
European NATO allies and Canada have pledged to increase defense budgets to 3.5% by 2035 in response to the growing Russian threat. However, the IISS cautions that this will require significant and sustained investments that many NATO allies may struggle to meet, given the potential trade-offs and spending cuts required.
So, what does this mean for Europe's military dependence on the US? Giegerich believes that reducing this dependence will take well into the 2030s, as Europe remains reliant on an unpredictable White House for military intelligence, cloud computing, and space assets. Air defense improvements are also a priority.
The situation is complex and evolving, and it raises important questions: How can Europe strengthen its defense capabilities while navigating economic challenges? What role should NATO play in countering Russia's growing military might? And, most importantly, when will this devastating war come to an end?
Share your thoughts in the comments. Do you think Europe can achieve military independence from the US within the next decade? What steps should be taken to ensure a sustainable peace in the region?
