Bold headline: Gas prices surge as renewed conflict with Iran rattles global oil flows. But here’s where it gets controversial: will Americans really bear the full cost, or will strategic moves from Washington cushion the impact? And this is the part most people miss: the ripple effects extend beyond gas pumps to inflation, politics, and energy policy debates.
Rewritten article:
US gasoline prices are expected to rise above $3 per gallon on Monday, marking the first time in more than three months that national averages surpass this level, according to market trackers and analysts cited by Reuters. The uptick comes as renewed tensions with Iran disrupt global oil supply and fuel markets react to heightened risk in the Middle East.
This price pressure occurs as President Donald Trump and the Republican Party face ongoing concerns about inflation ahead of the midterm elections. Trump has repeatedly claimed credit for lowering gasoline costs since returning to office, a claim that has faced scrutiny and fact-checks in the past.
Analysts at GasBuddy estimate that the national average could push past $3 per gallon on Monday, a level not seen nationwide since November 2025. Prices had dipped to around $2.85 earlier in February.
Oil markets typically move first, with gasoline prices following gradually, Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy noted after strike actions against Iran. Iran is a major oil supplier, and its government has restricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli air strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Hormuz strait remains a critical chokepoint, channeling roughly a fifth of global oil shipments by tanker. At least three vessels have sustained damage in the region, and major shippers have indicated plans to avoid the strait.
Global Brent crude rose about 10% in trading to around $80 per barrel as the conflict escalated, with some analysts forecasting a potential move toward $100 per barrel if tensions persist and a broader regional war unfolds.
The White House appears prepared to accept some political risk from higher oil prices as it pursues foreign policy objectives. Analysts suggest officials may focus on limiting Iran’s influence over energy flow through Hormuz, potentially signaling a readiness to release oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to stabilize prices if needed.
Former President Joe Biden authorized a notable SPR drawdown in 2022 to curb surging prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; Trump and other Republicans have criticized that decision.
Seasonal demand factors remain in play. Even before the Iran developments, refiners were producing a more expensive summer-grade gasoline designed to meet stricter environmental rules, and U.S. demand typically peaks during the summer travel season. Some market observers warned that the current situation could push prices higher than previously projected, even if wholesale moves had already begun pushing prices up by several cents per gallon.
Analysts note that a higher crude price—an estimated $5 per barrel rise—could translate into roughly a 12-cent increase per gallon for gasoline and diesel, though wholesale price adjustments have varied. The existing stockpiles of gasoline in the United States, hovering around 255 million barrels as of February 20, provide a buffer that could moderate immediate price spikes. That stock level equates to about 30 days of supply.
Market watchers expect heightened volatility in the short term, followed by a possible stabilization after the initial rush reactions. For context, this disruption comes as U.S. energy policy and geopolitical strategy intersect with consumer prices and the broader political landscape.
Source: Reuters reporting with market commentary from Shariq Khan in New York; editing by Richard Valdmanis.
What do you think about the connection between foreign policy moves and domestic fuel prices? Should the government prioritize swift energy security measures even if they carry political risk, or focus more on insulating consumers from price swings? Share your view in the comments.
