Utah's Playoff Path: A Crucial Battle Against Baylor
In the world of college football, the road to the playoffs is often a thrilling and unpredictable journey. And for Utah, their path is about to get even more exciting. Fresh from a bye week, the Utes are riding high on momentum, having dominated Colorado and Cincinnati with a combined score of 98-21. But here's where it gets controversial: they're not just aiming for a spot in the Big 12 title game; they're eyeing a potential playoff berth.
Currently sitting at 7-2, Utah has climbed to the 13th spot in the rankings, and they're not alone in the two-loss category. However, their fate is not solely determined by their record. If BYU stumbles against TCU or Cincinnati, it could open up a window of opportunity for Utah to claim a spot in the Big 12 title game. And if BYU loses both, Utah's destiny is in their own hands, and with it, a shot at the playoffs.
This rivalry between Utah and BYU is intertwined with a conference title and a chance at playoff glory. It's a tale of two teams with a lot at stake. First, Utah must travel to face pass-heavy Baylor, a crucial game that could shape their season (5 p.m. MST, ESPN2).
Game Grader: Statistical Dominance
Over the last three years, Utah has consistently outperformed Baylor, ranking 23rd among Power 4 teams, while Baylor sits at 43rd. In the 2024 season, Utah's performance dipped to 48th, but they've surged back to 10th in 2025. Baylor, on the other hand, has shown improvement, moving from 43rd to 25th in the same period.
My Game Grader formula, a measure of statistical dominance adjusted for opponent strength, is a key tool in evaluating teams. In my season preview, I predicted Utah to finish fourth in the Big 12, and they've exceeded those expectations with four blowout wins and a close loss to BYU.
Baylor, projected to finish third, hasn't quite met those expectations. Their defense, especially against the run, has been a concern, as seen in their opener against Auburn. However, they've shown resilience, grinding out wins against SMU and Kansas State. Currently, they rank 35th in the 2025 Game Grader.
Utah's Offensive Edge
Utah's offense, ranked 15th among Power 4 teams, boasts a strong rushing game, ranking 4th. Their passing game, led by quarterback Devon Dampier, is 32nd. Dampier, who missed the Colorado game, returned with a bang, throwing for 213 yards and two touchdowns against Cincinnati. He's a dual-threat quarterback, one of the best at evading the pass rush.
Utah's offensive line is a force to be reckoned with, and their running back, Wayshawn Parker, is on track to reach his 1,000-yard goal. However, their passing game needs work, especially when it comes to explosive, downfield plays. Head coach Kyle Whittingham acknowledged this, stating it's been a focus all season.
Baylor's Passing Arsenal
Baylor's offense, ranked 20th, is led by the nation's passing leader, Sawyer Robertson. He has an impressive arsenal of receivers, including Michael Trigg, the top tight end in FBS with six touchdowns. The receiving trio of Josh Cameron, Ashtyn Hawkins, and Kole Wilson has combined for an impressive 1,473 yards.
At running back, Bryson Washington earned All-Freshman honors in 2024, and true freshman Caden Knighten has shown potential, rushing for 104 yards against UCF. Robertson, however, lacks the mobility of other Big 12 quarterbacks, making him more susceptible to Utah's aggressive pass rush.
Utah's defense, ranked 13th, is a formidable force, especially against the pass. They rank 8th in pass defense and 25th in negative play rate, tracking sacks and tackles for loss. This could be a challenging game for Baylor's passing offense.
Game Prediction: Strength vs. Strength
Utah's top-10 defense faces off against the national passing champion, Sawyer Robertson. This reminds me of Utah's recent game against Cincinnati's top offense. Morgan Scalley's defense shut down Brendan Sorsby, holding him to a mere 14 points. Baylor's offense will face a tough test against Utah's defense, especially with their improved performance in the last two games.
I predict Utah will pass this test with flying colors, remaining in contention for both the Big 12 title and a playoff spot. It's going to be a close game, but Utah's overall performance gives them the edge.
Final Score Prediction: Utah 34 | Baylor 23
So, who do you think will come out on top? Will Utah's defense be the game-changer? Or will Baylor's passing offense surprise us all? Let's discuss in the comments and share your predictions!
